Thursday Night Football: Buccaneers @ Falcons 7:15 PM (Prime Video)
So far, I’m perfect picking Thursday Night Football games this year, but if I’m going to lose the streak, it’ll probably be because of this game. Both of these teams are the class of the NFC South, meaning this game could go a long way in deciding who makes the playoffs.
After a down game against the Broncos in Week 3, the Buccaneers put on a dominating display against the Eagles, outgaining Philadelphia by over 200 yards and winning 33-16. This is a good sign after they were held to just seven points by Denver. The defense also had a nice bounce-back effort, keeping the mobile Jalen Hurts in check. One potential concern was the nearly six yards they allowed per carry, but that’s largely due to Saquon Barkley’s 59-yard run.
Meanwhile, the Falcons are riding high after stealing a game from the Saints last week, thanks to Younghoe Koo’s 58-yard walk-off field goal. However, their offense is still concerning after putting up no touchdowns against a middle-of-the-road Saints defense. Their defense remains one of the most underrated units in the league, but it’s been bending a lot lately, leaving uncertainty as to when, or if, it’s going to break.
Prediction: 24-20 Buccaneers
Sunday London Game: Jets vs Vikings 8:30 AM (NFL Network)
There’s nothing people love more than waking up early on a Sunday to try and find a game on a network nobody watches. This game features the surprise team in football, with the Minnesota Vikings sitting at 4-0. Sam Darnold is looking like an MVP contender, but after nearly blowing a huge lead to the Packers, there might be some foreboding about their defense.
Meanwhile, the Jets just lost to the Broncos after their offense (once again) looked like a disaster, and Aaron Rodgers looked every bit of 40 years old. The defense held Bo Nix to only 60 yards passing but ultimately got worn down after having to bail out the offense again and again. Garrett Wilson needs to become a bigger threat in this offense, but Rodgers seems determined to make Allen Lazard the No. 1 option.
These London games are a complete crapshoot. I can throw out all the analysis I want, but ultimately this game will come down to which team deals with severe jet lag the best. The key for the Vikings is to get to 24 points. If they can do that, they’ll win this game.
Prediction: 24-23 Vikings
Sunday Noon Window
Panthers @ Bears (FOX)
Caleb Williams just had his best game as a pro, keeping his nose clean while recording a touchdown with 157 passing yards. That being said, the Bears still needed a short-field touchdown to eclipse the 20-point mark for only the second time this year—and the first time as an offense. The Bears’ defense continues to be a strong unit, and with them taking on the Panthers, I don’t see any reason why they shouldn’t be able to shut them down.
The Panthers, under Andy Dalton, are an entirely different football team. The offense might not be great, but it’s gone from putrid to viable in Dalton’s two starts. However, the defense remains a concern, allowing more than 30 points per game. The Bears’ offense might not be the most consistent unit, but they possess some weapons that could cause problems for the Panthers.
The key to this game will be the turnover differential. The Bears’ two wins have come when Williams has kept his nose clean, and their two losses have been plagued by turnovers. The Panthers have averaged one takeaway per game this year, and they’ll need to duplicate those efforts if they want a chance to win.
Prediction: 20-17 Bears
Ravens @ Bengals (CBS)
Both teams are coming into this game off impressive wins, and both fan bases hope last week will be the turning point that these contenders need to turn their seasons around. The Bengals’ offense is now back to full strength, with back-to-back games eclipsing the 30-point mark. Defensively, it’s still a work in progress, as they allowed 24 points to the Panthers last week and have given up the sixth-most points overall this season.
They’ll be taking on a Ravens team that delivered a beatdown on the previously undefeated Buffalo Bills, 35-10, with Derrick Henry finishing with over 200 yards of total offense and two touchdowns. The strength of the Ravens’ offense has been their run game, with another 200-plus-yard performance against the Bills on Sunday Night Football. They’ll face a Bengals team that is allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game.
However, the Bengals’ explosive passing attack will be up against a Ravens defense that has allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game. With both teams looking to dominate in different ways, we could be in for a good one in Cincinnati. The X-factor in this game will be the Bengals’ offensive line versus the Ravens’ pass rush. If they can’t keep Joe Burrow upright, the Bengals have no shot at winning.
Prediction 28-23 Ravens
Dolphins @ Patriots (FOX)
This game just makes me sad. The Dolphins were supposed to be one of the most electric offenses in the NFL, but ever since Tua Tagovailoa got hurt, they’ve been flat-out miserable to watch. What’s even more concerning is how disinterested Mike McDaniel looked on the sideline during the Dolphins’ Monday Night Football loss to the Titans, as his team crumbled around him. There are coaches, and then there are coordinators who just want to sit back and call plays, and it’s slowly becoming apparent which one McDaniel is.
As always when talking about the Patriots, the conversation has to begin with: Can they keep their opponent under 20 points? For once, the answer is yes, so it looks like we’ll have to dig a bit deeper than usual. New England comes in with an above-average running attack, which will square up against a middle-of-the-road Dolphins run defense.
With both teams needing to run the ball due to their inability to air it out, this game will be won in the trenches. As cliché as it sounds, the biggest factor in this game will be who wants it more. On one side, I see a Patriots team with players trying to prove themselves to their new coach. On the other, I see the Dolphins, the league’s retirement home, who already look like they’re booking their offseason vacations.
Prediction: 17-13 Patriots
Browns @ Commanders (FOX)
It appears the Commanders have found their quarterback, as Jayden Daniels continued his precision passing, completing 86% of his passes while recording a touchdown through the air and on the ground. Not only that, but Washington’s defense showed up last week, stifling the Cardinals and holding them to just 14 points.
Meanwhile, in Cleveland, things have been far from ideal. After blowing an early 10-0 lead, the Browns eventually lost 20-16 to the Raiders. The offense is simply dreadful, and if it weren’t for his contract, Deshaun Watson would have already been rightfully benched. The defense remains solid, but you can tell by their body language that they’re getting tired of being left out to dry week after week by the offense.
The Commanders are at home and coming in with all the momentum. The key for Washington is to stay clean and efficient. They don’t need Daniels to air it out 30-plus times like he did against the Cardinals, as long as he takes care of the ball and uses his legs to complement their running game. Since that Week 1 debacle against Dallas, the Browns have given up an average of 18 points per game, and they’ll need another great effort to have a chance to win this one.
Prediction: 22-17 Commanders
Colts @ Jaguars (CBS)
If the rumors are to be believed, Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson is on thin ice heading into this Week 5 showdown against the Colts. I kind of feel bad for Pederson. In his last two gigs, he’s been handed what looked like two franchise QBs, only to watch them turn into pumpkins. Trevor Lawrence might finally be heading in the right direction after tossing two touchdowns and avoiding turnovers, but the Jaguars still struggled to reach 20 points. The run game was solid, averaging over six yards per carry, but a late collapse by the defense allowed the Texans to escape with a 24-20 win.
The Colts are optimistic that Anthony Richardson will start this game. To be honest, I don’t know if that’s a good or bad thing, because Joe Flacco looked sharp against a solid Steelers defense, throwing for 168 yards and two touchdowns. The Colts’ defense remains their weakest link, allowing the ultra-conservative Steelers to eclipse the 20-point mark for the first time this season.
If the Jaguars can remain strong against the run and their offense keeps taking strides in the right direction, they might finally add a tally to the win column. The Colts will need to replicate their success through the air and do a better job of limiting the Jaguars’ passing game if they want a chance to move back above .500.
Prediction: 23-21 Jacksonville
Bills @ Texans (CBS)
As I mentioned in last week’s article, the Bills always look unbeatable for about three weeks before losing a head-scratcher. Their beatdown at the hands of the Ravens showed what happens when Josh Allen doesn’t pull off a herculean effort every game. Allen didn’t even play that badly, and if not for a poorly conceived trick play, he probably wouldn’t have had that fumble. The main concern, however, is the defense, which was trampled for 270 rushing yards and allowed touchdowns on the Ravens’ first three offensive series.
The Bills will be taking on the Texans, who feature the league’s leading receiver, Nico Collins, fresh off another 100-plus-yard day with a touchdown. The Texans have all the weapons to be one of the best offenses in the league, but they struggle with consistency. Their defense also has issues, allowing 29 points to the Colts and 34 to the Vikings, but they did a decent job last week, holding the Jaguars to 20 points.
Honestly, how this game didn’t find its way onto Thursday, Sunday, or Monday Night Football—and is instead buried in the noon CBS window—is beyond me. If the Texans’ defense can get after Allen like the Ravens did, it might be another rough outing for the Bills offense. The main headline will be Stefon Diggs going up against the team he forced his way out of in the offseason, and whether or not he’ll be able to back up the behavior he displayed this offseason.
Prediction: 28-26 Texans
Sunday Afternoon Window
Raiders @ Broncos (CBS)
This is a game for those who yearn for the days of single-bar facemasks, neck rolls, and three yards and a cloud of dust football. Two bad offenses meet two good defenses—classic examples of a stagnating force meeting an immovable object. This matchup doesn’t belong on primetime television; it should only be shown to those suffering from insomnia.
Both teams will enter with the same game plan: run the ball and try to keep the game out of their quarterbacks’ hands. With news of Davante Adams requesting a trade from the Raiders, it’s almost certain he’ll never suit up for the silver and black again. The Broncos’ two-game win streak has seen their defense hold opponents to single digits, while Bo Nix has not turned the ball over.
This will likely be a low-scoring slugfest where 14 points might be enough to get the job done. The outcome will depend on both teams’ running offenses and defenses. While neither excels at running the ball, Denver possesses a defense that is limiting teams to under 100 rushing yards per game.
Prediction: 13-10 Broncos
Cardinals @ 49ers (FOX)
Both teams are entering this game off drastically different results from Week 4. The 49ers steamrolled the hapless Patriots, winning 30-13 and playing exactly how they wanted to. The Cardinals, meanwhile, were blown out by the Commanders, 42-14. To use the words of the late, great John McKay, they “couldn’t stop the pass or the run, but otherwise were in great shape.”
Even though the 49ers sit at 2-2, they are still regarded as one of the premier teams in football for a reason, and it all comes down to their depth and versatility. Jordan Mason, filling in for Christian McCaffrey, has been stellar, racking up 447 yards while leading the league in carries with 91. The defense, while not perfect, has still been solid, forcing the third-most turnovers in the NFL.
The Cardinals have now been held to under 20 points in back-to-back weeks, and that 41-point outing against the Rams looks flukier by the day. The one bright spot for the Cardinals last week was James Conner, who had over 100 yards on the ground, averaging more than five yards per carry. The defense is still struggling, and I don’t think it will get any better against this balanced 49ers attack.
Prediction: 31-17 49ers
Packers @ Rams (FOX)
The Packers were at least able to hold their heads high after making the game respectable against the Vikings, bouncing back from a 28-7 deficit in the first half. In his first game back, Jordan Love threw for nearly 400 yards and four touchdowns, but he also turned the ball over three times. The Green Bay running attack was held to under 100 yards but managed a respectable 4.5 yards per carry. The defense, however, is more concerning after giving up 31 points and nearly 400 yards of offense.
The Rams, meanwhile, appear to be down to the nuts and bolts and are barely holding it together. The defense can’t stop anything, and the offensive line can’t protect Matthew Stafford long enough for him to get the ball to the spare parts he has at receiver. At least the Rams were respectable in running the ball last week against the Bears and will face a middle-of-the-road unit this week in the Packers.
The Packers need this game. They are sitting in third place in the NFC North, with potentially two of the best teams in football above them, meaning they can’t afford to fall farther behind. All of the injuries the Rams have endured have led to what looks to be another lost season and a long offseason of playing the “what if” game.
Prediction: 28-20 Packers
Giants @ Seahawks (CBS)
Both of these teams are coming off primetime losses last week, with the Giants falling 20-15 to the Cowboys and the Seahawks coming up short in a 42-29 shootout against the Lions. Geno Smith is the league’s leading passer heading into Week 5, and I don’t think any of us had that on our bingo cards going into this year. On paper, the Seahawks have all the potential to be a great team, but their defense is holding them back.
That defense, however, shouldn’t face too much scrutiny this week, as they’ll be taking on a Daniel Jones-led offense. Last week, against a porous Dallas run defense, the Giants managed only 26 yards on 24 carries. Malik Nabers has been a welcome addition to the offense, catching 12 passes for 115 yards and ranking in the top five in receiving yards this season as a rookie. Big Blue’s defense has done an admirable job, holding their last three opponents to 21 points or fewer.
With a big matchup next week against the 49ers, this could be one of those dreaded trap games for San Francisco where they get caught looking past their opponent. The Giants are 1-3 for a reason, but something is gnawing at me, telling me that something unusual is going to happen in this game. Here’s hoping that it’s just one of the usual voices in my head that I’ve grown accustomed to ignoring.
Prediction: 23-14 Seahawks
Sunday Night Football: Cowboys @ Steelers 7:20 PM (NBC)
This is a measuring stick game for both sides. The Steelers’ defense looked mortal against Joe Flacco and the Colts, wasting their best offensive output of the season. The Cowboys, although they beat the Giants last week, left a lot of meat on the bone, leaving an open door that would have been kicked in by a better team.
The Cowboys’ defense is an enigma. They’ve had two solid games and two absolute clunkers, and with Micah Parsons likely out for this game, they’ll be missing one of the top game-wreckers in the league. The Steelers, on the other hand, don’t have to concern themselves with such issues, as T.J. Watt will be fully healthy and looking to terrorize Dak Prescott off the edge. Overall, it’s a wash regarding each secondary, with both sides recording four interceptions on the year.
This brings us to the quarterbacks. Justin Fields had what appears to be his best game as a Steeler on paper, throwing for over 300 yards and recording three total touchdowns. Prescott enters this game ranking third in passing yards, with a respectable six touchdowns to just two interceptions. Despite Fields’ strong start to the year, I’d still take Prescott and the rest of the Dallas offense over the offensive crew for Pittsburgh.
Prediction: 23-17 Cowboys
Monday Night Football: Saints @ Chiefs 7:15 PM (ESPN)
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: The Chiefs played down to their competition but still won, and the internet donned its tinfoil hats to shout conspiracy, collusion, and match-fixing. If the Chiefs win on Monday against the Saints, expect more of the same, even if they somehow manage to win by more than a score for the first time in 269 days. The Chiefs’ offense took another hit with Rashee Rice out, putting a lot of pressure on Taylor Swift’s boyfriend and rookie Xavier Worthy to help get Patrick Mahomes out of what has been an enigmatic start to his 2024 season.
The Saints are one of the best teams at taking the ball away, boasting a +3 turnover differential and eight takeaways through four games. The Chiefs, conversely, are one of the most generous teams in the league, giving it away seven times through their first four contests. The Saints have also been solid defensively, having not allowed 20 points this season; the Falcons needed a pick-six to surpass the 20-point mark against them last week. Their offense was just okay against the Falcons, as their passing attack has cooled off in recent weeks.
With the Chiefs fielding one of the better units against running backs this year, Derek Carr will have to find a way to navigate his team through the air if he wants a chance to pull the upset. To win this game, Carr will need to keep his nose clean, and his defense must create turnovers to set up their offense for a couple of short-yardage scores. As always, nothing is ever simple when it comes to the Chiefs, so expect the unexpected.
Prediction: 23-22 Chiefs
Overall Record: 37-27 (Last Week 10-6)