VALLEY CITY, ND (NewsDakota.com) With the playoffs for 11-A football upon us this week, and the first year of a new playoff qualifying system leaving many shaking their head a bit, here are my top five takeaways from the leadup to the post-season.
1) Welcome to the QRF
Even with the loss to Fargo South to end the season, few thought Valley City would drop from the top seed to fourth. Even fewer saw a path for Fargo South to use a 7-3 win to vault past Grand Forks Red River to the top spot.
If you talk to a Minnesota coach or fan, they will tell you that this is a predictable result when you put the computers in charge.
The Quality Results Formula, known commonly as QRF, is a mystery, and it’s that way intentionally. The Minnesota State High School League began using it, and had an agreement with the originators of the formula to keep the formula away from public knowledge.
The holders believe it’s their formula, “proprietary information” according to the frequently asked questions portion of their main website, minnesota-scores.net. The league felt it was better that coaches didn’t know the formula so they would just concentrate on winning, not by how much or over whom.
Currently, the coaches in Minnesota vote to seed their post-season teams in their section tournaments, taking the QRF in as advisory. After this year, I’m guessing there will be some argument for this in North Dakota as well. Coaches seed every state basketball and volleyball tournament, they may as well seed football also.
2) The Wild West of Scheduling
Fargo South gets the top seed. They finished 5-0 against 11-A teams this year. Those five teams were Valley City, Wahpeton, Grand Forks Central, Fargo North, and Devils Lake.
The teams they jumped in moving from third to first on Judgement Day: Jamestown and Grand Forks Red River. They didn’t play either this year.
South played Williston, Fargo Shanley, Fargo Davies, and Bismarck St. Mary’s, and decided to let the chips fall where they may. In doing so, they played barely half their schedule against less than half of the 11-A division.
Is the strategy to avoid playing the tough teams in your own division and just waiting the computer rating out? Whether it is or isn’t, South’s schedule is a fly in the ointment of an otherwise really solid 11-A season.
3) The Power of Defense
Valley City allowed 56 points this season, the fewest in the east region of 11-A football, and it wasn’t close. The next lowest total was Red River’s 123 allowed. Only Grand Forks Central managed more than one touchdown in a game against Valley City.
The only case where the defense of Valley City may have been exposed was against the top passing team in the EDC, Grand Forks Central. Quarterback Dylan LaMont threw for 1759 yards this season. Five receivers in the EDC had 30 or more catches this season, four of those receivers play for Central.
4) Who’s Hot?
Two teams enter the post-season with momentum at their backs. And they are scary.
The first is Jamestown. They took Fargo North apart in their final game 49-21, and they have scored 40 or better in their final two games since losing to Valley City in week seven. Granted, Horace, their opponent in week eight, was not a hugely competitive team this year, but North is a five seed.
The second is Red River. The Roughriders defeated Central 19-9 in week four, then lost 34-0 to 11-AA West Fargo Sheyenne. That may have been the most productive loss a team can have. Since, the Riders have been scored on only once, and have outscored their opposition 133-6 in three weeks.
5) The East
Six of the eight playoff teams in this year’s field came from the EDC.
And it absolutely does not matter.
The two separate regions this year, the EDC and WDA, are there only for post-season awards. The conversation going forward will be whether the regions even need to exist. For scheduling purposes, there would likely be less controversy if the division looked at itself as a league, not two separate east-and-west divisions.
There is also the possibility of a lot of moving parts. If Jamestown makes a deep run this year, they will have accumulated a number of relegation points that could put them on the path of the forcible move to 11-AA, which is the region why Bismarck St. Mary’s is no longer in the division.
South’s tendency to play 11-AA teams may lead us to believe they would like to opt up and play with the bigs anyway.
Bottom line: don’t get too familiar with the current structure. It may not be around for long.