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CITY, N.D. (NewsDakota.com) Sometimes not getting what you expect is a very good thing. Just ask most farmers and lenders about wheat, corn and soybean yields this year.

NDSU Barnes County Extension Educator Randy Grueneich said after a disappointing year in 2015 that saw most farm operations lose their remaining working capital, 2016 was looking like another year with red ink.

The NDSU 2016 Projected Crop Budgets were showing that spring wheat, corn and soybeans would need above average yields just to break even. Each week had an increasing percentage of Ag news with articles about the worsening farm financial stress. Everyone was bracing for another tough year. Adding to the stress, crop prices continued to drop this fall as USDA continued to raise expected national corn and soybean yields. It looked more and more like even with above average yields there would be more red ink in 2016.

Then the combines rolled into the spring wheat, soybean and corn fields. Reports of 60 to 80 bushels per acre yields in spring wheat, 40 to 60 bushels per acre yields in soybeans and 170 to 200 bushel per acre in corn confirmed not just an above average yield but higher than any previous year. Surely a record yield in spring wheat, corn and soybeans would erase all the red ink and make for a prosperous year. Not so fast. Using an estimated 180 bushel per acre yield in corn times the current local price of $2.58 would generate $464 per acre in revenue.

The 2016 crop budget shows you need $474 to cover the cost of production with nothing left for labor and management. Spring wheat is a little better if you use an estimated 70 bushel per acre yield times the current local price of $4.45 per bushel generating $311.50 per acre in revenue. The 2016 crop budget shows you need $308 to cover the cost of production with nothing left for labor and management.

I saved the best for last. Using a 48 bushel per acre yield for soybeans and a local price of $8.80 generates $422.40 per acre in revenue. The 2016 crop budget shows you need $276 to cover the cost of production. Good thing the crop with the most acres in Barnes County is soybeans. Record yields helped us dodge a bullet in 2016. Our celebration may be short lived however as 2017 looks like another bullet that will need dodging.

NDSU Barnes County Extension Educator Randy Grueneich.