Saturday Games
3:30 PM: Chargers @ Texans (CBS/Paramount+)
The Chargers are coming in as hot as any team in the playoffs, riding a three-game win streak with their offense putting up 34+ points in each of their last three games. However, it should be noted that two of those wins came against the hapless Patriots and Raiders, both of whom recently fired their head coaches. That being said, Jim Harbaugh, in his return to NFL head coaching ranks, has molded the Bolts into a very solid all-around team.
Back in Week 10, I called the Texans one of the most overrated teams in football, and since then, they’ve gone 4-4 to close out the year. During that stretch, they dropped games to the Lions, Kansas City, and Baltimore, firmly planting themselves in the B-tier of playoff teams. The problem with the Texans has been their inconsistency, and nothing highlights this better than their defense. Despite having a top-five pass rush and secondary, they’ve allowed 27+ points in three of their last seven games. That being said, they’ve also held opponents to 21 points or less in 10 of their 17 games this year.
While everyone and their mother seems to be lining up the Chargers for a Divisional Round date with the Chiefs, there is some evidence to suggest otherwise. It’s no secret that Harbaugh wants to dominate this game with physicality, which means establishing J.K. Dobbins early and often. However, the Texans have held running backs to under four yards per carry this year and have limited quarterbacks to a league-best 58.8% completion percentage. The real question for the Texans comes down to their offense and which version of C.J. Stroud shows up.
In his last eight games, Stroud has posted a TD/INT ratio of 9/8, taken 22 sacks, and averaged around 200 passing yards per game. In contrast, during his first six games of the season, he had a TD/INT ratio of 10/4 and averaged over 268 passing yards per game. The Texans have struggled to protect Stroud all year, surrendering over 50 sacks, and now face a menacing Chargers defensive front that finished in the top 10 in sacks this season.
The X-factor in this game could be Joe Mixon, as the Bolts are giving up more than 4.5 yards per carry. Mixon, in three of his last five playoff games, has eclipsed 70 rushing yards and has recorded seven 100+ rushing-yard outings this year.
Justin Herbert has transformed into the ultimate game manager, which fits perfectly with Jim Harbaugh’s system. However, I don’t think Harbaugh’s system is built for a deep playoff run, as evidenced by their 2-5 record against playoff teams this year—with both wins coming against Denver.
Prediction: 23-20 Texans
7:00 PM: Steelers @ Ravens (Prime)
Remember when the Steelers were 10-3 and had an outside chance of snatching the one seed from either the Bills or Chiefs if the cards fell their way? Well, since then, they’ve gone 0-4, with their once-solid offense failing to eclipse 17 points in those four losses. Their defense has been equally terrible, allowing 380+ yards of offense in three of those defeats. Russell Wilson has gone from a potential solution at quarterback to a Steel City pariah, drawing comparisons to the likes of Bubby Brister and Neil O’Donnell.
The Ravens, meanwhile, have solidified their once-shaky defense, and their offense has now scored 30+ points in their last four games, all wins. If not for Saquon Barkley’s historic season, Derrick Henry would be a runaway favorite for Offensive Player of the Year honors. The Ravens are 10-0 this year when Henry rushes for 90+ yards. Lamar Jackson has also been stellar running the ball, racking up just over 900 yards at an impressive 6.6 yards per carry. The real question for Baltimore is: if the run game doesn’t pop right away, will they panic?
Last year against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship, they abandoned the run, finishing with only 81 rushing yards. A couple of years ago, with Tyler “Snoop” Huntley at quarterback, they threw nearly 30 times in a Wild Card round exit. If Pittsburgh wants any chance in this game, they need to stuff the run early and force the Ravens away from their bread and butter.
The Steelers will also need Russell Wilson to resemble an NFL quarterback again. During this four-game skid, the veteran signal-caller has averaged fewer than 180 passing yards and has accounted for only five total touchdowns against four turnovers. Wilson is essentially playing for his job in this game. If he wins, he has a chance to get the public back on his side and avoid another short-term stint as a bridge quarterback in places like Las Vegas or Indianapolis.
The Ravens will be without wideout Zay Flowers, who is sidelined with a knee injury. While I don’t expect a walkover from Baltimore like their last matchup, when the Ravens clobbered Pittsburgh 34-17, I do anticipate a comfortable Ravens win. However, if there’s one team that has rattled Jackson in his career, it’s the Steelers. And if there’s one stage that has consistently rattled Jackson, it’s been the playoffs.
Prediction: 30-20 Ravens
Sunday Games
12:00 PM: Broncos @ Bills (CBS/Paramount+)
Sometimes, being in a division with the Chiefs has its benefits—especially when they’ve already clinched the one seed and decide to roll out their D-team in your must-win game. All jokes aside, Sean Payton has done a remarkable job turning the Broncos around, with Bo Nix playing at a Rookie of the Year level. What makes Nix’s 29 passing touchdowns this year even more impressive is that he didn’t throw a single one until Week 4, after starting his career with four interceptions and no touchdowns in his first three starts.
The Bills, meanwhile, protected Josh Allen’s consecutive starts streak by having him deliver an MVP-worthy handoff in Week 18 before plastering him to the bench for the rest of the game in a loss to the Patriots. Buffalo has impressive wins this year against both the AFC and NFC one seeds and bounced back from a shaky Week 16 performance against the Patriots by plastering the Jets 40-14 the following week. The only thing shaky in Buffalo has been Josh Allen’s MVP case, which has taken a hit after he recorded fewer than 200 total yards of offense in three of his last five full starts (Weeks 13–17).
Both of these teams have padded their records against weaker opponents this year, with each earning just one win against AFC playoff teams. Ironically, both of those wins came against Kansas City—though Buffalo’s victory came against the Chiefs’ starters, unlike Denver’s. On paper, the Broncos don’t look like an ordinary seven seed, boasting a top-five scoring defense. However, a closer look reveals that if you exclude their Week 18 beatdown of the Chiefs’ reserves, their defense has allowed 30+ points in three of their last five games.
Buffalo, on the other hand, comes in with perhaps one of the most balanced offenses in NFL history. They are the only team in NFL history to tally 30 touchdowns through the air and on the ground in a single season. This is by far the best supporting cast Josh Allen has ever had, including an offensive line that has allowed only 14 sacks all year. They’ll need to be at their best against Denver’s league-leading pass rush, which has racked up 63 sacks this season.
On the surface, Denver looks like a potential dark horse to make a deep playoff run, with a top-five defense and an emerging rookie quarterback. However, I’m not sold. When you take out their Week 18 win over the Chiefs’ backups, the Broncos are just 1-7 against teams with winning records this year and are averaging only 18 points per game in those matchups. Denver has been a pleasant surprise this season, but it’s not quite their time yet.
Prediction: 27-17 Bills
3:30 PM: Packers @ Eagles (FOX)
The vibes are anything but immaculate in Green Bay right now. Not only did the Packers lose to the Bears, but they also suffered key injuries in the process, with Jordan Love and Christian Watson both going down. Love will likely play this week, but Watson has been ruled out for the remainder of the season. The Packers are the textbook definition of a B-tier team: they have some tools to give upper-echelon teams trouble, such as their ability to take the ball away on defense and control the clock with their running game. However, their 1-5 record against NFC playoff teams doesn’t lie. They’ve fallen short against the NFC’s elite, going a combined 0-5 against Detroit, Minnesota, and Philadelphia this season.
For the second consecutive year, a quarterback will take home the MVP award when it arguably should be going to a running back. Saquon Barkley has transformed the Eagles’ offense into a more consistent unit and would have had a shot at breaking the all-time single-season rushing record if he hadn’t been held out of Philadelphia’s Week 18 win over the Giants. The big question now is whether Jalen Hurts will play, as he’s missed the past few weeks due to a concussion.
Even if the Eagles are without their starting quarterback, it likely won’t change their offensive philosophy much. They rank first in the NFL in rushing attempts per game while sitting dead last in passing attempts. It also helps that Philadelphia’s defense, under the guidance of defensive guru Vic Fangio, has been stellar, holding teams to 20 or fewer points in eight of their last nine games.
Assuming both teams roll into this game with their starting quarterbacks, the Eagles are the clear pick. The only thing that makes me slightly apprehensive is Philadelphia’s tendency to suffer from front-runner syndrome. In games this year where their opponents have scored 22 or more points, the Eagles are just 2-3. While they have the firepower to put up 30+ points every game, they often lull themselves to sleep and sometimes wake up too late to salvage the game when the opposition comes ready to play.
Prediction; 26-20 Eagles
7:00 PM: Commanders @ Buccaneers (NBC/Peacock)
The Buccaneers survived a surprisingly strong effort from the Saints in Week 18 to clinch the NFC South, marking their fifth consecutive division title. Baker Mayfield had a career year, throwing 41 touchdown passes and setting a personal best for completion percentage at over 71%. Rookie running back Bucky Irving has also been a standout, piling up over 1,100 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. The Buccaneers are an enigma: they’ve shown they can beat anyone, with wins over the Lions and Eagles, but they’re equally capable of disappointing, as evidenced by losses to the Falcons (twice), 49ers, and Cowboys.
The Commanders felt a bit shaky after losing three straight games and managing only a narrow victory over the hapless Saints. However, gritty wins against the Eagles and Falcons have restored some of their early-season swagger. They started the year 7-2 and looked like a team in control of the NFC East. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels put together an impressive debut season, amassing over 4,400 total yards and 30 touchdowns. However, against playoff teams, Daniels has struggled slightly, with a 1-4 record and 10 total touchdowns against three turnovers.
Both defenses in this matchup are solid, though neither has been dominant. Tampa Bay’s defense has tightened up recently, allowing 20+ points in only one of their last five games. Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles is a veteran defensive mind and will have his team well-prepared to handle the dynamic Daniels. Washington’s Dan Quinn is also a proven defensive strategist, but a quick comparison of the rosters reveals that Bowles has the more stocked cupboard.
The key matchup in this game will be Baker Mayfield against the Washington secondary. Mayfield led the league with 16 interceptions this season, but the Commanders’ secondary, ranked 26th in the NFL, managed only seven interceptions all year. Tampa Bay is likely to lean into Mayfield’s gunslinger mentality, trusting him to air it out to Mike Evans and the rest of their receiving corps, regardless of the risks.
This game has all the makings of a Wild Card classic, featuring two offensively focused teams and quarterbacks capable of putting on a show. The difference, however, may come down to experience. The Buccaneers have been playoff regulars over the past five years and know how to handle the postseason pressure. In contrast, the Commanders are making their first playoff appearance since 2020.
Prediction: 33-28 Buccaneers
Monday Night
7:00 PM: Vikings @ Rams (ESPN/ABC/ESPN+)
With the game officially being moved to a neutral site in Arizona due to the wildfires in California, the Vikings might catch a small break. After 16 games of mostly stellar football, Sam Darnold and the Vikings’ offense picked the worst possible time to falter, managing only nine points against a Lions team that had allowed over 30 points per game in its previous four contests. As a result, the Vikings fanbase has gone from riding an all-time high to echoing the familiar refrain of “here we go again,” with optimism about this team’s playoff chances at a low point.
The Rams, meanwhile, won the NFC West by default, riding an undefeated streak in their last five games with Matthew Stafford. However, their offense has been uninspiring during that stretch, surpassing 21 points just once and scoring fewer than 20 points in their last three outings. The Rams’ defense has carried the team, holding four of their five opponents to under 15 points. It’s worth noting that the Rams handed the Vikings a 30-20 loss earlier this season, giving them added confidence heading into this matchup.
Oddsmakers in Vegas seem to believe the Vikings’ Week 18 clunker against the Lions is more reflective of their level, as Minnesota opened as just a one-point favorite despite their impressive 14-3 record. That line has since moved to 2.5 points, signaling some faith in the Vikings but not enough to suggest overwhelming confidence. Personally, I trust the broader sample size over one bad performance.
Against top-ten scoring offenses this year, the Rams have struggled, allowing an average of 29.8 points per game and posting a 2-3 record. While the Vikings’ recent performance was an eyesore, it seems recency bias is clouding people’s judgment. The Rams’ defense, despite its strong finish to the season, still ranks in the bottom half of the league in points allowed per game. They’ve also been below average against both the run and pass, a worrying trend against a Vikings team that has been efficient offensively for most of the season.
For Sam Darnold, this game represents a pivotal moment. A strong performance could solidify his case for a lucrative contract extension—an outcome that seemed impossible when he was languishing with the Jets. On the other hand, if he repeats his dismal showing against the Lions, there’s no guarantee he’ll be back as the Vikings’ quarterback next season.
Prediction: 27-23 Vikings
Regular Season Record: 192-80