The first half of 2019 should see a shift away from current El Nino conditions. 

That prediction came from Dr. Art Douglas of Creighton University, who spoke during the CattleFax Outlook Seminar at the NCBA Cattle Industry Convention and Trade Show. 

 

Douglas says as the trend develops, it should allow the eastern third of the country to remain drier as the jet stream pushes Gulf moisture across the southern parts of the U.S. 

 

“After a cooler February, the U.S. will enjoy a relatively mild spring with a reduced threat of delayed planting,” Douglas told the crowd. 

 

As far as the markets go, CattleFax analyst Kevin Good says he is expecting prices to remain strong. 

 

“We’ve been on a good run for the past few years and I expect that to keep going in 2019,” Good says.

“However, I do expect margins will begin to compress and leverage to shift from the cow-calf and stocker sectors over to the feeders as we expand the supply of cattle.” 

 

Price risk will remain in place over the next few years thanks to five years of expanding herds. 

 

“Cattle producers, on average, will receive a smaller percentage of the retail beef dollar as larger cattle supplies increase price pressure across all segments of the industry,” he says. 

“Retail beef prices will likely see some inflation in the year ahead.”