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N.D.–Active weather is something that we are all becoming used to in North Dakota.  But how normal are the severe weather patterns we seem to be experiencing?  Joshua Scheck, Science and Operations Officer with the National Weather Service in Bismarck said “For the last few years we’ve been in a more active summer and winter pattern then we have seen for seven to ten years prior to that.  It feels a little abnormal, but we are just kind of stuck in this pattern.”
For Stutsman, Foster, LaMoure and Dickey Counties under severe thunderstorm warnings, we’re less than half so far this year then we had in the entirety of 2010. In terms of tornado warning, there’s been a little bit more.  The counties are either tied or a higher.  Flood warnings also seem to be higher this year.
Scheck added that “We are in a pattern where the climate prediction center has us highlighted in above average precipitation for the next few months.  So we’re really looking at above normal precipitation amounts through October.  And even though the official forecast is to move out of La Niña into a more neutral patter, the atmosphere is still behaving as if it were La Niña.
Some climate models are showing us moving back into La Niña.  What that means for North Dakota is, generally, a more active pattern continuing.  Meaning below average temperatures in the winter and above average precipitation.